The Vanishing Act of College Football Upsets: Why FCS vs. Power Five Is No Longer a Thing
Remember when a plucky underdog from the FCS could walk into a Power Five stadium and rewrite the script? Those days feel like a distant memory. The last time an FCS team toppled a Power Five giant was in 2023, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford. Two seasons have passed. 125 consecutive wins for the big boys. And as I scroll through the 2026 schedule, I can’t help but wonder: Is this the end of an era? Or just a symptom of a sport that’s becoming dangerously predictable?
The Transfer Portal and NIL: A One-Two Punch for FCS Teams
Let’s get this straight: the talent gap isn’t just widening—it’s becoming a chasm. Since the NIL era kicked off in 2022, Power Five teams have steamrolled FCS opponents at a 99.1% win rate. Compare that to the 95% rate from 2006–2021, and the math tells a brutal story. But here’s what fascinates me: this isn’t just about money. It’s about velocity. The transfer portal lets FCS programs get bled dry faster than ever. Imagine being a coach at an FCS school. You finally develop a star quarterback? Poof—next season, he’s at a Power Five school getting paid. And no, the “retention” stats don’t tell the whole story. We’re seeing a brain drain that’s structural, not cyclical.
The Forgotten Irony: FCS Teams Are Getting Better… But Not Good Enough
Here’s a twist: the FCS squads on this year’s watchlist aren’t just plucky—they’re loaded. South Dakota State? Back-to-back national champs. Youngstown State’s QB? A Walter Payton winner who accounted for 53 touchdowns last year. And yet, even these teams are facing Sisyphean odds. Why? Because Power Five schools aren’t just outspending them—they’re out-innovating them. Take Nebraska’s approach to scouting: they’re using AI-driven analytics to game-plan for FCS offenses, while programs like North Dakota are still relying on film breakdowns. The result? A systemic edge that money alone can’t fix.
The 2026 Contenders: Hope or Hype?
Let’s dissect the six “best bets” for an upset:
- South Dakota State at Northwestern: The only reason this feels close is that Northwestern has a history of FCS PTSD. But let’s be real: SDSU’s last win against a Power Five team was in 2015. This isn’t a matchup—it’s a nostalgia trip.
- Youngstown State at Kentucky: Yes, UK’s new coach is untested. But YSU’s QB heroics won’t matter if their defense gets steamrolled by UK’s five-star recruits.
- North Dakota at Nebraska: A sneaky rivalry angle here. But Nebraska’s culture shift under Matt Rhule feels like a wall no FCS team can climb.
The pattern? These games are “sneak peeks” for Power Five teams scouting future conference rivals, not genuine upset threats. When North Dakota State left for the Missouri Valley, it wasn’t just a conference shift—it was a tacit admission that FCS programs can’t compete without a pipeline to Power Five talent.
What’s Lost When Upsets Die
Here’s what nobody’s talking about: the soul of college football. The thrill of the unknown—the reason fans tune in every Saturday—is evaporating. I’ll never forget the 2013 FCS playoffs when Towson stunned No. 20 UMass. That game had swagger, chaos, and a David-vs.-Goliath narrative that ESPN highlights still replay. But today? Those moments are extinct. And with the playoff expansion sucking more revenue into Power Five coffers, the cycle will only accelerate.
The Bigger Picture: A Tiered System That Kills Drama
This isn’t just about football. It’s about cultural homogenization. We’re seeing the same forces that killed competitive balance in European soccer take root in American college sports. The rich get richer, the poor get survival kits, and fans get a product where 42-0 blowouts are more common than last-minute field goals. And let’s be honest: when the outcome feels predetermined, why bother tuning in?
Final Thought: Is There a Fix? Or Are We Just Nostalgists Yelling at the Cloud?
I’ll admit it: I’m part of the problem. I grew up on stories of Appalachian State toppling Michigan. But maybe the real issue is that we’re asking the wrong question. Instead of wondering when an FCS team will win again, we should be asking why we accept a system that rigs the game against parity. The transfer portal, NIL deals, and conference realignment aren’t going away. So here’s my unpopular take: Let college football become the NFL West Coast offense—predictable, transactional, and ruthlessly efficient. But don’t pretend the magic hasn’t left the building.
